TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S 151.7E TO 17.9S 150.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 151.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232049Z MHS NOAA-18 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
